TV: American Idol (women's semifinals, week 3)

Not much really changes tonight; for the most part, the ladies sing about as well or as poorly as we've come to expect.

There is one striking exception, and that's Kinnik, who gives the night's worst performance; her pitch is off throughout, the song doesn't suit her voice, and she never seems comfortable.

Almost as bad -- and this isn't much of a shock -- is Ayla, who gets a bit better as the song goes on, but sounds very weak at the beginning, and should probably have stuck to ballads.

Moving up from awfulness to mediocrity, we find Kellie, who rocks about as hard as Pat Boone on a milk binge; like so many Idol women over the years, her low notes are weak, and she's only really comfortable when she can belt. Simon's fondness for her is inexplicable, and her "I'm a lovably dumb redneck" shtick becomes more patently phony each week. "I'm a mink!," indeed.

Melissa does nothing tonight but belt, and though she's occasionally pushing a little too hard, the song she's chosen is reasonably well suited to her voice.

Paris has chosen the night's dullest song, and while she's fun to watch (as always), even she can't quite make "Conga" anything other than boring.

Here we cross the line from mediocre to entertaining. Lisa does a fine job, and she's got technique to spare; listen to how smoothly she makes the transitions from the low part of her range to the high. It's a pleasant surprise that she doesn't overdo the melismatic wailing (Randy even complains that there's not enough of it).

Mandisa's performance is a bit on the safe, by-the-book side, but she knows how to sell a song, and that voice is spectacular.

Katharine gives the most casually sultry performance of "Think" I've ever heard, and she makes it look almost too easy. Some will no doubt find it too laidback and low-key, but I thought it was the best of the night, and one of the highlights of the season so far.

So overall, I'd put Mandisa, Katharine, Paris, and Lisa in the lead group; Melissa and Kinnik some distance behind; and Kellie and Ayla deserving to go home.

I think both of them will survive, though, and I'll predict that America will vote off Kinnik and Melissa.